September 2024 Economic Report

The economic landscape has been unpredictable. The past six months have been marked by optimism and uncertainty as the economy attempts to stabilize amidst shifting market dynamics, evolving monetary policies, and ongoing geopolitical challenges. 

Understanding the underlying forces at play is more important than ever for those focused on securing financial growth and protecting wealth.

In this report, I’ll discuss the critical events and trends that have shaped the economy in the first half of the year, where we are now, and some trends that indicate potential opportunities. 

So, without further adieu, let’s delve into my economic report.

Where is Goldilocks?

In economic parlance, a Goldilocks scenario is an ideal economic situation in which the economy is not too hot (overheating) or not too cold (recessionary) but “just right.”

If you’ve been paying attention to the news, you’ve heard the terms ‘soft landing’ and ‘hard landing’ being thrown around–a Goldilocks scenario is what they refer to when they say ‘soft landing.’ 

If the economy hits everything “just right,” it will have a soft landing. If any part of the ideal scenario is off, the economy will have a hard landing.

A Goldilocks scenario is characterized by:

1. Moderate Economic Growth. The economy is growing at a sustainable pace—fast enough to create jobs and increase incomes but not so fast that it leads to inflationary pressures or asset bubbles.
2. Low to Moderate Inflation. Prices are rising at a controlled rate, which helps maintain purchasing power without eroding savings or forcing the central bank to raise interest rates aggressively.
3. Stable Employment. Unemployment rates are low, but not so low that the labor market becomes overly tight, which could lead to wage inflation and force businesses to increase prices.
4. Balanced Interest Rates. Interest rates are at a level that supports borrowing and investment without stoking inflation or overly restricting economic activity. This balance allows for growth in housing, business expansion, and consumer spending without creating unsustainable debt levels.
5. Positive Market Sentiment. In a Goldilocks economy, financial markets typically perform well as corporate profits grow steadily, and investors are generally optimistic. However, the growth is not so rapid that it leads to speculative bubbles.

Moderate Economic Growth

Over the past few months, the economy has shown a mix of progress and increasing challenges. 

Since consumer spending drives 70% of our economy, economic indicators such as consumer sentiment, the Durable Goods Report, the Cass Freight Shipments Index, and the Purchasing Manager’s Index are among the best indicators of the economy’s direction. 

Consumer Confidence

According to the most recent readings, the Consumer Confidence Index is nearing lows not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic. These readings indicate consumers are becoming cautious or pessimistic about the economy.

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

While consumer spending has remained relatively steady, it has been noticeably weakening recently. According to a Gallup poll, 70% of Americans believed the economy was “getting worse” in July 2024.

Durable Goods Report (DGR)

The Durable Goods Report (which reports on the sale of large items such as automobiles, semiconductor equipment, and turbines) and the Cass Freight Shipments Index (which reports on freight movement across the country) tell a similar story. 

I was initially shocked to see how much the Durable Goods Report jumped in July since it contradicts the consumer confidence readings. However, upon further investigation, I found that airplane manufacturers increased their orders by $27.6 billion (34.8%) in July, which caused the spike.

Durable Goods Report (DGR)

When you dive deeper into the numbers, you’ll find that vehicle orders fell for the second consecutive month, down 2.6%, primary metals orders fell by 0.9%, computer electronics orders declined by 0.7%, and electrical equipment orders were down 0.4%.

When you remove the outlier transportation orders, durable goods orders actually declined 0.2% in July! These readings are more consistent with a pessimistic consumer. 

Cass Freight Shipments Index

I then looked at the Cass Freight Shipments Index and found that freight movement has slowed significantly.

Cass Freight Shipments Index

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has a benchmark of 50. Any reading over 50 indicates an economic expansion, and a number under 50  indicates a contraction.

The most recent PMI reading was a low 46.8. The only reading over 50 in the last 12 months was 50.3 in March 2024. Prolonged readings below 50 (such as what we’ve seen), especially with no sustained recovery, signal a potential recession or significant slowdown in the broader economy.

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

Overall, based on these readings, I believe the moderate economic growth goal of the Goldilocks scenario will not happen—the economy has too much negative momentum.

Low-to-Moderate Inflation

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average price change over time. In other words, it measures inflation.

Recent readings show that inflation has been cooling and has been down to 2.4% for the last six months.

Despite inflation still being above the Fed’s target of 2%, I would say that the Fed has achieved its low-to-moderate inflation goal, as it has come down significantly and is trending downward.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Stable Employment

The Fed’s mandate regarding employment is to attain “maximum employment.” 

This means the Fed uses its powers to incentivize the economy to produce the highest level of employment the economy can sustain without generating unwelcome inflation.

Jobs/Labor Report—Unemployment

Maximum employment describes an economy in which nearly everyone who wants to work has a job.

The unemployment rate has been ticking up since the end of last year. However, based on recent inflation readings, I believe that the Fed has attained its goal of “maximum employment.”

Balanced Interest Rates

I personally believe that interest rates should remain at 5% or higher, except in extreme circumstances where short-term government intervention becomes necessary to buoy a sinking economy. 

In an ideal scenario, interest rates should be stable so that long-term planning can occur, high enough to reward investing, and low enough to stimulate the economy. 

Interest rates have remained at 5.5% for the past 12 months. While I agree with their current levels, the speed at which they increased created economic problems–particularly in real estate. 

Interest Rates

Commercial borrowers face higher borrowing costs, making their investments unfeasible. Residential borrowers who refinanced at low rates are stuck because they cannot afford to move.  

Historically, 30% of mortgage holders have mortgages under 4%, but today, 60% have mortgages under 4%. This means that 30% of the real estate market is locked up, creating an artificial supply shortage. 

Overall, I believe interest rates are where they need to be to push down inflation, but they have stifled the real estate market and other areas of the economy. 

The bottom line is that I don’t believe the Fed has achieved its balanced interest rate goal.  

Positive Market Sentiment

This leads me to the last of the Goldilocks goals–positive market sentiment. 

Currently, real estate prices are unaffordable, stock prices are high, residential borrowers are stuck, commercial borrowers are losing their assets, and consumer sentiment is flat-lining. 

The writing is on the wall–market sentiment isn’t good right now in most markets. So, overall, I believe the Fed missed its goal of having positive market sentiment. 

Conclusion

I have just walked you through the Fed’s Goldilocks scenario. Here is how it scored:

❌ Moderate Economic Growth

✔️ Low-to-Moderate Inflation

✔️ Stable Employment

❌ Balanced Interest Rates

❌ Positive Market Sentiment

Since the Fed is unlikely to achieve a Goldilocks scenario and economic indicators point towards a recession, I am not optimistic about a soft landing.

What’s Next?

While the economy’s prospects look bleak, I am not wholly pessimistic. I still believe we have a bright future, and opportunities will present themselves to those who are mentally and financially prepared. 

So, for this next section, I will discuss the economic challenges and opportunities I see. 

Housing

The U.S. housing market shows signs of transitioning from a seller’s to a buyer’s market, with some key trends emerging. 

Home Prices

Home prices have reached all-time highs around the country. While many factors have contributed to this, prices have been driven by higher construction costs, a supply-and-demand imbalance, and investors flooding markets.

First, it may surprise many of you when I say we have a supply-and-demand imbalance because of the many new homes and apartments being built as fast as they can go up. 

Despite breakneck construction speeds, there still isn’t enough skilled labor, land prices have risen, and a significant portion of the real estate market is offline because of homeowners with low-interest rate mortgages. All these factors contribute to the bottlenecking of the housing supply and driving up prices.

But where are all these buyers coming from? Well, in Las Vegas, many are coming from California. But overall, the number of individual investors, institutional investors, real estate investment trusts (REITs), private equity firms, and foreign investors has increased dramatically in recent years.  

Additionally, in some markets, like Las Vegas, the buildable land in the valley is limited by government boundaries. 

Studies have shown that prices will exponentially increase each generation when natural or artificial (government) barriers prevent development and construction.

Notable examples are Hawaii, which has natural barriers; California, which has government limitations on buildable land; and London, which has a government-imposed green belt around the city.

In addition to those issues, there is a large portion of homeowners that are stick 

Overall, I believe housing supply shortfalls will likely continue until (1) new home construction increases or (2) the Fed drops interest rates below 4%, releasing a gridlocked section of the market.

Affordability

High prices have resulted in a significant portion of the population being unable to purchase a home, forcing many into long-term renting. 

Housing affordability indices measure how affordable housing is for the average household in a given area. When the index reads over 50%, it is considered a healthy market because 50% or more of the local population can afford the median home.

It may not be surprising to hear that San Francisco has an affordability index of 23%–meaning that only 23% of households in the area can afford to purchase the median home. 

However, you will be surprised to know that the Las Vegas Valley has an affordability index of just 15%! According to a study by the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index, over 85% of homes sold in the Las Vegas Valley in the fourth quarter of 2023 were unaffordable.

In fact, historically, Las Vegas’ housing was valued at around 3.5x the average household income. Today, we are over 6.0x the average household income–yikes!

How is this sustainable? In the long run, it is not. When pricing is so far above the median household income, the only things that can sustain high prices are (1) supply shortages and (2) outside investors.

When supply shortages are resolved, or economic headwinds occur, housing tends to decline in price until it is affordable to 50% of the population.

As demonstrated in this report, the United States is heading towards an economic headwind–whether a slowdown or a recession, it doesn’t matter. If the headwinds continue, investors will begin drying up, pushing home prices down.

If home builders continue building at their current pace, the supply side of the equation will begin to be resolved, which will also start pushing home prices down.

People can only buy what they can afford. Inflation has been ravaging consumers for the past four years, and they have had to dip into their savings to maintain their lifestyles. 

Personal Savings (Billions)

The personal savings chart shows that people have less than 50% of their pre-COIVD savings. This means most buyers aren’t financially prepared to purchase a home. 

Any one of these three of these factors will push housing prices down towards general affordability.

Opportunities for Home Sellers

Housing prices are high right now. Economic pressures, new housing inventory, and the lack of buyers will apply downward pressure on home prices. 

Once the Fed lowers interest rates below 4%, a new round of buyers will emerge, supporting the market. However, I believe the market could decline by 10-15% before these new buyers prop up the market. 

If you need to sell your home and you’re holding onto it in hopes that prices will continue upward AND that you’ll be able to find a buyer, you may be missing an important opportunity to sell right now. 

I live in Las Vegas, and I don’t gamble, but if I did, I’d bet that prices will continue to increase in the short term as supply issues plague the market, decrease in the mid-term as buyers and investors dry up, and then increase again in the long term as building limitations continue to bottleneck housing supply. 

Opportunities for Home Buyers

The housing market has been seller-friendly for the past 4-5 years, but I believe that will change in the next 4-8 months.

With economic headwinds on the horizon, I believe opportunities will arise if you are financially prepared. Financially speaking, look for interest rates below 4% and new buyer incentives before jumping into a new home. 

Some new home builders offer low-interest-rate incentives to purchase higher-priced homes. Depending on your financial situation, this may or may not be a good move. You should evaluate the pros and cons before taking advantage of this. 

My recommendation is to (1) identify what you can afford to pay (typically, a mortgage payment below 30% of your take-home pay), (2) save towards a down payment of 20%, and (3) wait until the right home and opportunity arise. 

Commercial Real Estate

The commercial real estate market faces challenges and uncertainty, with varying performance across different sectors.

With recent headwinds, investment volume has decreased significantly, with annual commercial real estate investment volume down 47% year-over-year in Q4 2023. This has contributed to the 7% year-over-year decline in commercial property prices.

For brevity’s sake, I will discuss just four primary classes of commercial real estate in this section: (1) office, (2) multi-family, (3) retail, and (4) industrial. 

Office

Office faces significant challenges, with vacancy rates reaching new record highs of almost 14% in March 2024. Demand continues to decline due to the transition to remote and hybrid work.

Class A offices are outperforming as employers seek higher-quality spaces to attract employees back, but they are coming at a significant cost to the bottom line.

Multi-Family

Multi-family is performing relatively well, with increased demand due to high mortgage rates pushing people towards renting. However, multi-family operators were hurt over the past year as vacancy rates increased to 7.8% in March 2024 due to new supply and increased operational costs.

Retail

Retail is one of the silver linings of commercial real estate because it is showing resilience despite lower absorption rates. Vacancy rates remain low at around 4%, the lowest among all commercial real estate sectors. 

Industrial

Industrial is experiencing a slowdown, with net absorption at levels not seen in over a decade. However, it still maintains the fastest rent growth among all sectors, with rents 5.3% higher than a year ago.

Many companies are moving towards large warehouses servicing local regions, similar to Amazon. As this trend continues, there will be regular demand for industrial space. 

Opportunities

With high vacancy rates, office buildings are ripe for the picking if you can bring a competitive advantage and cash to the table. 

Banks are traditionally ill-equipped to handle real estate, so they will be looking to liquidate their real estate-owned (REO) assets. Watch real estate auctions for marquee buildings sold for pennies on the dollar.

Multi-family operators that have survived the last year have not emerged unscathed. Many are running on thin margins, and investors may be looking to exit. 

I believe there are current opportunities to buy up some key assets at a discount if you have cash and are willing to negotiate to maximize your ROI.

I don’t see a lot of opportunity in retail, but watch opportunities arise if consumers pull back on spending for an extended period. As the economy sours, look for added opportunities here. 

I believe that there is a lot of demand for industrial space in the new economy, but beware biting off more than you can chew. Many large tenants are demanding significant tenant improvements, which will tank your ROI.

Stocks

Overall, I believe that stocks are overpriced. However, despite economic headwinds and an expensive market, good companies can still be found to purchase. 

Since I am a registered financial advisor, I cannot provide specific stock recommendations to anyone who isn’t my client. However, I can tell you that I have been finding good investments in the real estate and technology sectors. 

I do not believe in timing markets; however, I believe in waiting for good purchase opportunities. As companies experience headwinds and profits decline, I believe that more opportunities to buy great companies at a discount will present themselves. 

Conclusion

As much as the Fed tries to manipulate the economy to its will, it is a fickle beast with no respect. In other words, I believe the Fed’s attempt at a Goldilocks scenario doesn’t look promising. 

As stated in my previous report, I stand by my statement that there is a 61% -79 % probability of a recession by Q1-2025 based on historical precedent. 

I also believe opportunities will open up for the financially prepared, so now is the time to review your budget and stockpile cash.

Book Club

I just re-read 7 Habits for Highly Effective People by Stephen R. Covey. I really like his approach to establishing personal principles and living your life accordingly. I am recommending this book because your principles will keep you anchored in times of storm.

The following articles and resources contributed to the thoughts and opinions shared in this analysis. While I don’t expect you’ll want to read all of these articles, they have been included if you wish to read them.

Economic Data

1. https://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htm
2. https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/pdf/durgd.pdf
3. https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf
4. https://ycharts.com/indicators/reports/unemployment_insurance_weekly_claims
5. https://ycharts.com/indicators/purchasing_managers_index
6. https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/textview.aspx?data=yield
7. https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/cass-freight-index
8. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth
9. https://www.census.gov/econ/qfr/mmws/current/qfr_mg.pdf
10. https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html
11. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
12. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate
13. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/balance-of-trade
14. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/bankruptcies
15. https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc/background.html 

Articles & Other Sources

1. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-declining-birth-rates-in-the-most-populous-countries-1950-today/
2. https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-hard-landing-economy-growth-spending-socgen-albert-edwards-2024-6
3. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/06/business/office-building-foreclosures-losses.html
4. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/04/business/apartment-multifamily-loans-trouble.html
5. https://fortune.com/2024/07/13/economic-outlook-us-corporate-bankruptcies-pandemic-era-high-recession-warning-unemployment/
6. https://www.axios.com/2024/07/15/us-economy-slowdown-economic-sentiment
7. https://investorplace.com/2024/07/the-commercial-real-estate-meltdown-is-spreading/
8. https://hbr.org/2024/07/u-s-commercial-real-estate-is-headed-toward-a-crisis
9. https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-report-labor-market-hiring-layoffs-quits-recession-sahm-rule-2024-8
10. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-america-ceo-says-stretched-120633392.html
11. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/12/falling-commodity-prices-are-indicating-there-is-trouble-brewing-with-the-economy.html
12. https://dailyhodl.com/2024/08/12/jpmorgan-chase-bank-of-america-wells-fargo-and-citi-predict-abrupt-fed-rate-cuts-amid-global-market-turbulence-report/
13. https://seekingalpha.com/news/4139010-home-depot-falls-after-pointing-to-weak-consumer-spending-trends-lowes-also-lower
14. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-in-line-with-expectations-in-july-as-investors-eye-rate-cuts-123427282.html
15. https://www.businessinsider.com/sahm-rule-claudia-recession-new-indicator-michaillat-saez-unemployment-jobs-2024-8
16. https://wolfstreet.com/2024/08/16/plunge-of-single-family-construction-starts-in-july-was-huge-outlier-see-hurricane-beryl-multifamily-jumped-45-from-march-low-despite-cre-depression/
17. https://www.businessinsider.com/next-recession-odds-risks-economy-fed-rate-cuts-imf-lachman-2024-8
18. https://www.thestreet.com/retail/giant-shipping-company-liquidates-after-bankruptcy-sale-fails
19. https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/16/economy/us-economy-explained-nightcap/index.html
20. https://www.thestreet.com/travel/is-canada-jetlines-still-running-flights
21. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/16/private-jet-flights-covid-era-demand-wanes.html
22. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/highest-credit-card-debt-history-161524590.html
23. https://dailyhodl.com/2024/08/17/bny-state-street-and-jpmorgan-chase-and-91-us-lenders-at-serious-risk-of-bank-runs-report/
24. https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/24/08/40439485/goldman-sachs-cuts-us-recession-odds-to-20-reverses-earlier-increase-as-economic-
25. https://www.globest.com/2024/08/20/cbre-declares-the-multifamily-market-has-bottomed-out/
26. https://www.businessinsider.com/rate-cuts-recession-economy-labor-market-federal-reserve-bca-research-2024-8
27. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-job-market-may-near-143647594.html
28. https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-recession-labor-market-revisions-rate-cuts-rosenberg-2024-8
29. https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/08/25/recession-bear-market-imminent-flawless-indicator/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host-full&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article&referring_guid=758747bd-82fd-487d-8a6d-ec37e4d3a251
30. https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2508303/recessionary-indicators
31. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-distressed-real-estate-sales-rise-but-often-potential-buyers-find-the/
32. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/home-prices-set-another-record-high-may-affordability-crisis-worsens
33. https://ycharts.com/indicators/las_vegashendersonparadise_nv_housing_affordability_index
34. https://www.fastcompany.com/91173748/housing-market-reset-41-markets-inventory-shifting-power-to-buyers
35. https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/us-housing-market-economy-at-serious-risk-due-to-3-trillion-in-uninsured-homes-130012828.html
36. https://nationalmortgageprofessional.com/news/real-estate-investors-returning-buying-ways
37. https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-08152024
38. https://www.benzinga.com/real-estate/24/08/40418071/grant-cardone-says-wait-until-the-federal-reserve-drops-rates-to-this-number-to-buy-a-home
39. https://fortune.com/2024/08/15/barbara-corcoran-home-prices-mortgage-rates-inflation-fed-cut-time-to-buy/
40. https://www.businessinsider.com/houses-for-sale-supply-inventory-costs-mortgage-rates-prices-fed-2024-8
41. https://wolfstreet.com/2024/08/21/home-buyers-strike-expands-even-as-mortgage-rates-drop-to-lowest-since-may-2023-but-surging-refis-will-speed-up-the-feds-qt/
42. https://wolfstreet.com/2024/08/22/here-comes-the-inventory-of-vacant-homes-while-buyers-strike-continues-despite-drop-in-mortgage-rates/
43. https://www.fastcompany.com/91177651/housing-market-home-prices-where-the-shift-is-happening
44. https://www.businessinsider.com/buying-home-not-easier-interest-rate-cuts-prices-rent-crisis-2024-8
45. https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/25/economy/housing-market-recovery/index.html
46. https://youtu.be/PhfYARIpF6Y?si=2aUT9W6UfgbtZuOH
47. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-prices-wont-fall-meaningfully-without-significant-job-losses-economists-0259cccc
48. https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2024/06/01/the-us-sees-the-clouds-of-a-financial-crisis-gathering-on-the-horizon_6673400_19.html
49. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/two-commercial-foreclosures-speak-volumes-173011103.html
50. https://fortune.com/2024/05/31/bank-of-america-ceo-brian-moynihan-consumers-businesses-low-growth-economy/
51. https://www.newsweek.com/housing-market-plunge-home-sales-april-2024-1906544
52. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/key-engines-us-consumer-spending-140000015.html
53. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/03/us-treasurys-investors-look-to-key-jobs-data-in-week-ahead.html
54. https://www.chicagobusiness.com/commercial-real-estate/commercial-real-estate-exposure-big-banks-rises-40-reit-debt
55. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Diesel-Demand-Hits-26-Year-Seasonal-Low-Amid-Economic-Slowdown.html
56. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-manufacturers-shrink-in-may-as-orders-drop-industrial-side-of-the-economy-is-soft-ed4916a0
57. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-private-payrolls-rise-less-124120619.html
58. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/nearly-two-thirds-middle-class-americans-say-struggling-gasping-air
59. https://fortune.com/2024/06/10/commercial-real-estate-crash-new-york-city-office-building-discount-short-sale/
60. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-11/pimco-warns-of-more-regional-bank-failures-on-commercial-property-pain
61. https://www.nationalreview.com/2024/06/the-california-minimum-wage-disaster/
62. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/robert-kiyosaki-believes-crash-begun-120134289.html
63. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-11/bank-leaders-say-real-estate-pain-is-still-confined-to-office
64. https://fortune.com/2024/06/13/commercial-real-estate-office-bargain-extreme-discounts/
65. https://www.fastcompany.com/91139348/housing-market-economy-supported-by-record-number-mortgage-free-homeowners
66. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/irs-wants-end-another-major-124532819.html
67. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-sales-increase-less-than-expected-in-may-123311452.html
68. https://www.tastingtable.com/1604101/california-minimum-wage-restaurant-traffic/
69. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-correction-sp500-outlook-fed-rate-cuts-inflation-tech-2024-6
70. https://www.tastingtable.com/1604101/california-minimum-wage-restaurant-traffic/
71. https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/homebuilder-warns-real-estate-market-becoming-victim-its-no-1-killer
72. https://www.ft.com/content/f0d2a5a7-e5ef-4044-8380-ff690b609a5a
73. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/banks-face-141-billion-in-commercial-real-estate-losses-but-theyll-handle-it-analyst-5893490a
74. https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cuts-july-economy-recession-forecast-housing-jobs-2024-6
75. https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-us-economy-consumer-spending-hard-landing-inflation-slowdown-2024-6
76. https://fortune.com/2024/06/21/housing-market-crisis-home-prices-record-high-existing-sales-inventory/
77. https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/18/economy/us-retail-sales-may/index.html
78. https://finbold.com/we-asked-chatgpt-4o-when-the-next-recession-will-start-heres-what-it-said/
79. https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-crash-property-correction-prices-foreclosures-mortgage-defaults-banks-2024-6
80. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-27/offices-will-be-even-more-empty-in-2026
81. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/24/business/commercial-real-estate-loans.html
82. https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/27/economy/housing-market-prices-inflation/index.html
83. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-will-home-prices-go-down-six-economists-weigh-in-60973f00
84. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/walgreens-stores-closing-locations/?ftag=YHF4eb9d17
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89. https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-crash-home-prices-correction-foreclosures-mortgage-defaults-2024-7
90. https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/07/07/us-money-supply-great-depression-big-move-stocks/
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92. https://moneywise.com/real-estate/grant-cardone-warns-of-biggest-real-estate-correction
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98. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2024/8/2/intel-to-slash-15000-jobs-amid-struggles-to-keep-up-with-nvidia-and-amd
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109. https://kpmg.com/us/en/articles/2024/july-2024-durable-goods.html

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